You get all these probabilities right, because at a quantum level everything is just a probability until observed. That’s true for our brains too; they’re made up of atomic, and subatomic particles. And since they’re made up of atomic particles, and QM applies here then it’s safe to say that those probabilities in the state at the quantum level make having free will a problem. Because, it’s all random states of being in a state. So the entire system is a random one, at any given point in time. And, nature knows how to deal with that.
So all these probabilities in our head originate, and are contained within our subconscious. Think hard incompatibilism - neither free will exists nor does determinism exist, at this point in time. Only randomness, and chaos exist. Because of probabilities, randomness, chance, luck or whatever you want to term it as - In the end it is a non deterministic universe (quantum mechanics). These probabilities reside, and are made present to the subconscious. The subconscious acts as a filter, and through which thoughts behaving as choices emerge. Then free will comes in, and you do have a choice. Thus free will is a product of randomness, of the chaos in the universe, which is also random, and is in a state of constant flux; thus chaotic. This satisfies evolutionism, and the Big Bang too. And, it also then influences reality. Wave functions are non-deterministic, also that the uncertainty principle is part of this universe. They’re all probabilities. Until you pick one or observe one. Then it becomes real (non local realism), and thus again you made a choice to make it real (observable).
Now assume that we are studying just one particle at the quantum level, then everything is non deterministic; probabilistic. But if we study a group of particles the same way, our calculated probabilities of them having the resultant, calculated value is also true. It’s impossible to determine the actions of a single person in a shopping mall. But it’s really easy to calculate volume of sales based on the collective foot falls that happen to fall in the shopping mall, and then correlate a bunch of data to make decisions with, in over a period of time. This is where moral, ethics, and largely behavioral-choice making or decision making step in. It’s where that herd mentality steps in - If he or she is doing it then it’s an okay type of a thing.
Thus choice can be influenced with regards to what we observe, relate to, and understand. That’s why a part of having choice exists. And, thus does reality or rather more scientifically speaking - a determinate moment in spacetime exists (non-local real state of the system thus causalities exist, based on many observances in a single moment in spacetime).
Even the most deterministic theory of all probabilities happening, and this creating multiple verses (many world interpretation- deterministic, realist and local - not possible because of Heisenberg and Bell’s inequalities), and we stepping into one, is essentially non-deterministic, because we don’t know which universe we’ll step into.
Cauchy theorem ( applying it to local and, non local differential equations, and their infinitesimal solutions), Heisenberg uncertainty principle, chaos theory, and Bell’s inequalities used in conjunction prove that nothing in nature is set when it comes to the past or the future. It’s so much in flux that we can’t even term it as reality. The present is very deterministic, and still has a lot of incalculable variables (Heisenberg). Not hidden variables, but non deterministic properties. Then it means that the now just happens. It’s in flux in one moment in time, and the next its determinate, and indeterminate at the same time. And, all along what our tiny little brains are trying to do is make sense of it all by trying to assert some form of control over the next moment; from moment to moment. And, thus we are back to our subconscious which acts as a filter to the randomness and, chaos that exist in the now. And, we only have this one moment to make a choice (think Eminem). I’ll go ahead and as far as this: since we are a part of nature, and we have a subconscious that acts as a filter for all probabilities - only letting through filtered thoughts that we can derive our actions from, then it’s nature itself trying to make sense of the chaos, and may want to take further evolutionary steps in making that possible. And, if that’s the case then the Universe itself wants to become deterministic at some point in time. 🐒😝